Risks

For some reason, I get a lot of questions about risks on the trail.  People who think nothing about hopping into a car and driving on the highways sincerely believe that I'll be attacked by "mountain people" or eaten by a bear.  My glib answer is that I'll be far safer on the trail than I will be shopping for groceries in town.  In this case, glib is also factually correct.  I will say, though, that my understanding of the statistics of hitch-hiking is not enough to get me to use that mode of transportation.  Sometimes irrational fear isn't worth overcoming.  I've selected my resupply points based on proximity to the trail so I don't have to hike too far to towns.

But what am I really concerned about?  Here's my list, in order of worry with some indication of likelihood:

Injury

I'll be particularly vulnerable to ankle, knee, and lower back injuries on the early portions of the trail where I'll be soft and green and carrying way more than my body is accustomed to on fairly steep inclines.  Steep down hill sections in particular give me pause.  If I'm seriously injured, there will be a clock ticking to get back on the trail so I can get onto Katahdin before Baxter State Park closes for the winter.  Just to punctuate the point, I'm starting out my experience with a bad knee.  I'm getting older.  Things aren't so rubbery and resilient anymore.

Hypothermia

I'm prepared for cold weather, getting wet, high winds, and snow in small combinations.  But if I am unable to move much (perhaps due to injury) to generate body heat, then cold, wet, wind, and/or snow in combination can get vary dangerous.  One early symptom of hypothermia is that the sufferer begins to make poor decisions.  Since I'll be alone, there is no one there to arrest or contradict poor decisions, so I could spiral into serious trouble really quickly.  So, I need to stay warm no matter what.  I spent more on my equipment to stay warm than on any other pack category, and I intend to remain safe, if not always perfectly toasty.

Illness

There are two forms of illness that worry me:  giardia and lyme disease.

Giardia is a parasite found in some untreated water.  It attacks the gut if consumed and causes diarrhea and sometimes vomiting.  Once in the body, the illness can last for days (sometimes weeks), and tends to weaken the infected person dramatically through fluid loss and malnutrition.  The best defense is to filter water and to keep untreated items (including hands that have touched untreated water) separate from treated.  Careful water management is important, and I tend to filter everything I use, including what I use for cleaning skin and equipment.  Hand sanitizer is pretty much standard on the trail these days.

Lyme disease is a bacteria transmitted by the bite of ticks.  It causes weakness, rash, fever, and headache and tends to spread through the body if not treated promptly with antibiotics.  In some cases it can survive in the host for years.  The best defense is to prevent tick access to the body, and I do this by spraying clothing (particularly shorts and socks) and equipment with Permethrin, spreading Deet on my legs, wearing shorts that prevent access to insects, and carrying a mirror for daily body inspections for ticks.  I'm also in the habit of avoiding wet high grass which is a perfect jumping-off point for ticks.  Fortunately, I have the perfect anti-tick hair do.

Inattention

Staying focused for a trip like this is difficult.  There will be ups and downs and long stretches of routine.  That's all part of the experience.  But disconnecting from the moment is how one comes face-to-face with wildlife that should be kept at a distance, or how one slips on scree (pebbles on a hard surface that act as ball bearings) to take a painful fall and slide.  Even stupid things like forgetting which bag had the dirty water and which is okay to drink, or forgetting to hang the food out of reach of critters can create bad situations.  All sorts of things can happen when one is tired physically and/or emotionally, particularly when alone.  The only way to combat this is to convert the large amount of time I'll have to think and actually use it to think.

The Real Risks

I'm not doing something that is outrageously dangerous.  This is a well-groomed and well-traveled recreational trail with few places farther than a hard day or so from help.  Just being away from cars improves my life expectancy more than the dangers listed above diminish it.  Distance from "normal people" gives me even better odds.

Yes, there are potential problems.  But for the most part they are personally manageable.  The ones that are not are low-probability and live more in lore than real life.